UPS and the Software Behind The Wheel
The prospect of automated, self-driving cars is poised to disrupt one of the top jobs in the United States: trucking. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 2018 there are close to 2 million people occupying this position and is projected to grow 5% by 2028 (bls).
In August 2019, UPS acquired a stake in autonomous driving company TuSimple — a clear indication as to where they are placing bets on the future of their company.
This shows the maturation of the industry-no longer is autonomous driving technology only being built in a super-secret lab at Google, or in a factory that also builds Rocketships. Autonomous vehicles are also being adopted by a 112-year-old company headquartered in Atlanta, and not Silicon Valley.
TuSimple, founded in 2015, is a self-driving technology company making it possible for long-haul heavy-duty trucks to operate on both highways and surface streets. After their last round of funding in August, the company has eclipsed unicorn status and is currently valued at just over $1B (Techcrunch). This valuation is based on the prospect of fully automated fleets in the future, but due to regulatory and technology hurdles, the timeline for this reality is indefinite. However, TuSimple has differentiated itself and brought on partners like UPS, USPS, Amazon, and Mclane by offering pieces of automation, such as anti-braking technology, that can be incorporated into vehicles today. Additionally, and most impressively, UPS and Tusimple are beginning to test fully automated vehicles on a designated route between Tuscon and Phoenix Arizona. Though these efforts require a UPS driver behind the wheel and a TuSimple engineer in the passenger seat, it proves the technology works and that package delivery without human assistance will be here sooner than we think (Reuters).
As the nascent automated vehicle industry heats up, an important distinction is emerging between automated cars (passenger vehicles and robotaxis) and automated trucking. GM and Uber have stumbled in their efforts to build autonomous vehicles because of additional complexities in the technology that is required for their cars to run as intended. As it stands today, Uber drivers are unable to predict the location of their next passenger after dropping off their current rider. So, not only does Uber need to build an automated car safe for the road, they must contend with the added complexity of building anticipatory technology that mitigates this unpredictability for these vehicles to run as intended.
While the trucking industry still contends with building safe and effective technology into their vehicles, the increased complexity that Uber must address is minimized. Contrast Uber with UPS, where each truck is responsible for a specific route during premeditated time periods. To achieve effective, automated fleet vehicles, UPS only needs to build requisite technology that can operate on their predefined routes. While there are still safety concerns with these vehicles on highways, their function can be thought of more as trains operating on train routes, going from point A to point B, rather than cars driving around cities.
While the industry’s growth beyond Silicon Valley’s walls is exciting from both a societal and economic standpoint, there are short-term, negative consequences. With 2 million workers, trucking is one of the United States’ top occupations. When technology allows UPS, Amazon, and FedEx to adopt automated trucks, millions of jobs will vanish. Secondly, security breaches and hacking within a new technological ecosystem could bring disastrous consequences. While these are legitimate concerns and there may be regulatory efforts to slow progress, I am confident this monumental innovation will come to fruition.
The industry’s move beyond Silicon Valley makes self-driving cars a certain but distant future. I for one am looking forward to hopping into the passenger’s seat, reclining fully, closing my eyes and taking a nap until I reach my destination.
- https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers.htm
- https://techcrunch.com/2019/08/15/ups-takes-minority-stake-in-self-driving-truck-startup-tusimple/
- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ups-tusimple-investment/ups-buys-stake-in-tusimple-testing-self-driving-trucks-in-arizona-idUSKCN1V51EU
